TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071884
Played Sep 4Finished
Wojciech Tobiasz
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151113119119––
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:08 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Tobiasz to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1151113119119––
H2H Wojciech Tobiasz 2–2 Rafal Niemiec Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Niemiec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tobiasz 1291 vs Niemiec 1321
Niemiec
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tobiasz 60% vs Niemiec 40%
Tobiasz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tobiasz 40% vs Niemiec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tobiasz -1 · Niemiec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niemiec) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTobiasz 1.86 / Niemiec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Niemiec)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13071884
Tobiasz1.86
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 82 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Niemiec1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 107 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it84% 72 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTobiasz2wins
AwayNiemiec2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tobiasz2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S2Tobiasz1Niemiec3n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
S3Tobiasz2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S4Tobiasz3Niemiec1n = 4Tobiasz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTobiaszNiemiecT − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match45.542.5+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTobiaszNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 729 vs 154 / 25246%61.1%335 / 729 vs 154 / 252Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecTobiasz 1.86/Niemiec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tobiasz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 4 · 14:20W. Tobiasz—11121011143R. Niemiec—514123122
WSep 4 · 06:20W. Tobiasz—111111113R. Niemiec—513991
LAug 17 · 12:20W. Tobiasz—741291R. Niemiec—111110113
LAug 17 · 08:20W. Tobiasz—81191282R. Niemiec—1121110113
W. Tobiasz10
WSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113WSep 7 · 07:10P. Mecik2.0511871132W. Tobiasz1.68611114113LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113LSep 4 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.3721111113W. Tobiasz2.75113741WSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 12:20W. Tobiasz2.358911121O. Jadach1.5011117143LSep 4 · 10:40W. Tobiasz2.5088100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 4 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.301111143W. Tobiasz3.1085120
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113
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