TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087644
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191513711511119
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Niemiec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 102 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Rafal Niemiec at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Niemiec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1296 vs Niemiec 1307
Niemiec
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Niemiec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Niemiec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak +1 · Niemiec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Niemiec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.91 / Niemiec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Niemiec)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087644
Nowak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 243 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back21% 87 of 410
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 237
Niemiec1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 107 of 170
Up 2–0, closes it95% 54 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it84% 72 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1738 vs 156 / 25638.7%60.9%672 / 1738 vs 156 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiemiecNowak 1.91/Niemiec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Niemiec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowak won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571
R. Niemiec10
WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak—M. Sikon——
R. Niemiec
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