TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089336
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.34
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311118611118––
Rafal Ogon
Away
2.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1311118611118––
H2H Jakub Nowak 18–10 Rafal Ogon Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Nowak
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1302 vs Ogon 1110
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Ogon 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Ogon 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -4 · Ogon -2
Nowak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (20%) is below what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.34 / Ogon 2.90
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Nowak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13089336
Nowak1.34
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it69% 50 of 73
Ogon2.90
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak7wins
AwayOgon3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak83.3%5 of 6
AwayOgon50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak6Ogon4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Nowak5Ogon5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak8Ogon2n = 10Nowak took 8 of 10
S4Nowak3Ogon5n = 8Ogon took 5 of 8
S5Nowak3Ogon1n = 4Nowak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakOgonN − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.240.8+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakOgonBasisWin rate · lifetime671 / 1735 vs 116 / 45038.7%25.8%671 / 1735 vs 116 / 450Avg sets wonper match1.81.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.633.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakNowak 1.34/Ogon 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 10 · 23:10J. Nowak—14613113R. Ogon—12111191
LMay 10 · 17:10J. Nowak—11101113112R. Ogon—812415133
LJan 12 · 03:20J. Nowak—10121171R. Ogon—12148113
LJan 11 · 21:20J. Nowak—871191R. Ogon—11118113
WAug 26 · 22:00J. Nowak—1112113R. Ogon—51070
WAug 26 · 18:00J. Nowak—122311113R. Ogon—101111792
WAug 24 · 22:50J. Nowak—12118113R. Ogon—1081191
WAug 24 · 15:10J. Nowak—1111113R. Ogon—5660
WAug 22 · 23:30J. Nowak—411117133R. Ogon—119911112
WAug 22 · 19:10J. Nowak—14111413113R. Ogon—163121552
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594991J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571LSep 5 · 13:30J. Nowak2.389111371W. Wojtaszczyk1.5311915113
R. Ogon10
LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Ogon5.254780K. Juszczyk1.111111113LAug 17 · 02:20R. Ogon3.959850P. Adamus1.191111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Sep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91R. Niemiec1.80—Sep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 7 · 18:45J. Nowak—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——Sep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak—K. Adamus——Sep 8 · 24:30J. Nowak—O. Jadach——Sep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak—P. Kurek——Sep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak—G. Marud——
R. Ogon
Nothing scheduled
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