TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089054
Played Sep 6Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.24
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115114––––
Rafal Ogon
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
116115114––––
H2H Sebastian Krupa 15–10 Rafal Ogon Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (74%)
Krupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-10 in 25
Krupa
Correct
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1434 vs Ogon 1121
Krupa
Correct
both rated, 313 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 100% vs Ogon 20%
Krupa
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 90% vs Ogon 20%
Krupa
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +5 · Ogon -1
Krupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.24 / Ogon 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Krupa)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13089054
Krupa1.24
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 105 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 76 of 100
Ogon3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa5wins
AwayOgon5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa83.3%5 of 6
AwayOgon100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa6Ogon4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S2Krupa6Ogon4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S3Krupa6Ogon4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S4Krupa2Ogon2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaOgonK − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.333.6+3.7per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaOgonBasisWin rate · lifetime292 / 581 vs 116 / 44850.3%25.9%292 / 581 vs 116 / 448Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.24/Ogon 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 20:20S. Krupa—111011113R. Ogon—712751
WAug 17 · 24:00S. Krupa—1111113R. Ogon—4950
LAug 16 · 16:00S. Krupa—10111091R. Ogon—12912113
WAug 9 · 21:10S. Krupa—1111113R. Ogon—7790
LAug 9 · 16:50S. Krupa—11181411122R. Ogon—920166143
LJul 20 · 02:20S. Krupa—101111762R. Ogon—125711113
LJul 19 · 20:20S. Krupa—11770R. Ogon—1311113
WJun 22 · 24:00S. Krupa—1111113R. Ogon—7570
WJun 21 · 16:00S. Krupa—1111113R. Ogon—6880
LJun 8 · 24:00S. Krupa—6970R. Ogon—1111113
S. Krupa10
LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 19:35W. Jozala2.90511771S. Krupa1.3511811113WSep 6 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.60531361S. Krupa1.41111111113WSep 6 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.74118691S. Krupa1.9561111113WSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123LSep 2 · 20:20S. Krupa2.0091241172K. Juszczyk1.711110111113
R. Ogon10
LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Ogon5.254780K. Juszczyk1.111111113LAug 17 · 02:20R. Ogon3.959850P. Adamus1.191111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.