TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088884
Played Sep 6Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
3.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210711511––
Sebastian Krupa
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 80.4% is still 80.4%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
80.4%
80.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
7111210711511––
H2H Rafal Ogon 10–14 Sebastian Krupa Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (76%)
Krupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Krupa
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1126 vs Krupa 1430
Krupa
Correct
both rated, 305 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 20% vs Krupa 80%
Krupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 30% vs Krupa 90%
Krupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon +1 · Krupa +4
Krupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 3.85 / Krupa 1.20
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Krupa)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088884
Ogon3.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 69
Krupa1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 105 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 76 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon5wins
AwayKrupa5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgon100%4 of 4
AwayKrupa83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon4Krupa6n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S2Ogon4Krupa6n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S3Ogon4Krupa6n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S4Ogon3Krupa1n = 4Ogon took 3 of 4
S5Ogon2Krupa1n = 3Ogon took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonKrupaO − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.237.5−2.3per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonKrupaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 447 vs 291 / 58026%50.2%116 / 447 vs 291 / 580Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaOgon 3.85/Krupa 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 24:00R. Ogon—4950S. Krupa—1111113
WAug 16 · 16:00R. Ogon—12912113S. Krupa—10111091
LAug 9 · 21:10R. Ogon—7790S. Krupa—1111113
WAug 9 · 16:50R. Ogon—920166143S. Krupa—11181411122
WJul 20 · 02:20R. Ogon—125711113S. Krupa—101111762
WJul 19 · 20:20R. Ogon—1311113S. Krupa—11770
LJun 22 · 24:00R. Ogon—7570S. Krupa—1111113
LJun 21 · 16:00R. Ogon—6880S. Krupa—1111113
WJun 8 · 24:00R. Ogon—1111113S. Krupa—6970
LJun 7 · 16:00R. Ogon—511121182S. Krupa—115144113
R. Ogon10
LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Ogon5.254780K. Juszczyk1.111111113LAug 17 · 02:20R. Ogon3.959850P. Adamus1.191111113
S. Krupa10
LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540WSep 6 · 19:35W. Jozala2.90511771S. Krupa1.3511811113WSep 6 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.60531361S. Krupa1.41111111113WSep 6 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.74118691S. Krupa1.9561111113WSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123LSep 2 · 20:20S. Krupa2.0091241172K. Juszczyk1.711110111113
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