TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088528
Played Sep 6Finished
Rafal Adach
Home
1.54
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116101210121131311
Rafal Ogon
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:16 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Adach to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
116101210121131311
H2H Rafal Adach 3–1 Rafal Ogon Rafal Ogon has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Adach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Adach
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adach 1251 vs Ogon 1114
Adach
Correct
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adach 60% vs Ogon 0%
Adach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adach 50% vs Ogon 20%
Adach
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adach -2 · Ogon -5
Ogon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Adach)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdach 1.54 / Ogon 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Adach)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13088528
Adach1.54
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 46 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it81% 30 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it67% 38 of 57
Ogon2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 41 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back13% 13 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdach3wins
AwayOgon1wins
Adach leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdach75%3 of 4
AwayOgonn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adach4Ogon0n = 4Adach took 4 of 4
S2Adach2Ogon2n = 4split evenly
S3Adach3Ogon1n = 4Adach took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdachOgonA − OBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match34.228.0+6.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdachOgonBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 573 vs 115 / 44541.4%25.8%237 / 573 vs 115 / 445Avg sets wonper match1.81.3per matchAvg pointsper match34.633.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdachAdach 1.54/Ogon 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.2%
Adach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 10 · 01:35R. Adach—1111113R. Ogon—6890
WAug 9 · 19:35R. Adach—1111113R. Ogon—7740
WApr 20 · 24:45R. Adach—11511113R. Ogon—511781
LApr 19 · 18:45R. Adach—116971R. Ogon—71111113
R. Adach10
LSep 6 · 20:45R. Adach1.83114841W. Jozala1.8671111113LSep 6 · 19:10R. Adach3.00441181K. Juszczyk1.3211116113LSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113LSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123WSep 6 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.8571270R. Adach1.801114113WSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 02:45R. Wiza1.858119101R. Adach1.8511811123WSep 6 · 01:30A. Szurgot2.604880R. Adach1.421111113LSep 5 · 23:55R. Szymik1.231110118113R. Adach3.6581271162WSep 5 · 23:05R. Wiza2.101111861R. Adach1.6613811113
R. Ogon10
LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Ogon5.254780K. Juszczyk1.111111113LAug 17 · 02:20R. Ogon3.959850P. Adamus1.191111113
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