TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12445964
Played Aug 17Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
3.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811511––––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.19
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:41 and never touched — 71.9% is still 71.9%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
71.9%
71.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
911811511––––
H2H Rafal Ogon 3–15 Pawel Adamus Rafal Ogon has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:41What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (77%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-15 in 18
Adamus
Correct
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1136 vs Adamus 1383
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 247 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 40% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 30% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -2 · Adamus +4
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% — Strong (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 3.95 / Adamus 1.19
Signal prob.7% / 93%
Edge (Adamus)+15.8pp
TT Elite Series · #12445964
Ogon3.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog26% won 43 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back12% 13 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 78
Adamus1.19
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 155 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it97% 68 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon1wins
AwayAdamus9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgonn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon1Adamus9n = 10Adamus took 9 of 10
S2Ogon1Adamus9n = 10Adamus took 9 of 10
S3Ogon2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Ogon0Adamus3n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonAdamusO − ABasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match26.737.5−10.8per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 517 vs 375 / 67727.3%55.4%141 / 517 vs 375 / 677Avg sets wonper match1.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match34.140.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusOgon 3.95/Adamus 1.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.6%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 20:20R. Ogon—611149113P. Adamus—119121192
LAug 9 · 22:50R. Ogon—41060P. Adamus—1112113
LAug 9 · 15:10R. Ogon—8790P. Adamus—1111113
LMay 31 · 21:35R. Ogon—116981P. Adamus—71111113
LMay 31 · 15:35R. Ogon—10470P. Adamus—1211113
LNov 30 · 14:30R. Ogon—712120P. Adamus—1114143
LNov 1 · 06:10R. Ogon—34120P. Adamus—1111143
LAug 6 · 08:45R. Ogon—771131P. Adamus—11117113
LJul 29 · 14:45R. Ogon—10990P. Adamus—1211113
LJul 29 · 08:20R. Ogon—3350P. Adamus—1111113
R. Ogon10
LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Ogon5.254780K. Juszczyk1.111111113
P. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WSep 1 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.305590P. Adamus1.271111113WSep 1 · 05:35P. Gumulinski1.958101161P. Adamus1.7711128113WSep 1 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.6097100P. Adamus1.421111123WSep 1 · 03:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.7511861272P. Adamus1.378111110113
Upcoming Matches
R. Ogon
Nothing scheduled
P. Adamus1 of 1 neutral
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