TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087201
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210118––––
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 61 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 3–1 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Schaniel
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1331 vs Niemiec 1307
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 60% vs Niemiec 40%
Schaniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 70% vs Niemiec 40%
Schaniel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -2 · Niemiec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 1.80 / Niemiec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Schaniel)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087201
Schaniel1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 219 of 369
Up 2–0, closes it90% 104 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it77% 163 of 211
Niemiec1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSchaniel3wins
AwayNiemiec1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSchaniel leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S2Schaniel2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S3Schaniel2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSchanielNiemiecS − NBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.030.0+5.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1746 vs 155 / 25450.2%61%876 / 1746 vs 155 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielSchaniel 1.80/Niemiec 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 11 · 24:50K. Schaniel—8680R. Niemiec—1111113
WAug 10 · 17:30K. Schaniel—1111113R. Niemiec—3590
WJul 21 · 01:30K. Schaniel—118311113R. Niemiec—71111762
WJul 20 · 19:55K. Schaniel—81111113R. Niemiec—115661
K. Schaniel10
LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113WSep 5 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.611111113G. Sawicki2.205670WSep 5 · 24:35K. Schaniel1.571111113A. Szurgot2.256870LSep 4 · 23:20K. Schaniel2.20911111152P. Gumulinski1.61119813113
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach1.6011841192R. Niemiec2.10911116113LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113
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