TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077158
Played Sep 4Finished
Krzysztof Schaniel
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111191181113511
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Schaniel above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 99 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 62.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Schaniel 66–147 Piotr Gumulinski Krzysztof Schaniel has won 66 of their 213 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-147 in 213
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 81 in 213, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schaniel 1312 vs Gumulinski 1389
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schaniel 20% vs Gumulinski 60%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schaniel 20% vs Gumulinski 50%
Gumulinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schaniel -2 · Gumulinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchaniel 2.20 / Gumulinski 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Gumulinski)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077158
Schaniel2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 186 of 458
Down 0–1, comes back27% 67 of 247
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 136
Gumulinski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 336 of 567
Up 2–0, closes it92% 154 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it75% 228 of 306
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchaniel6wins
AwayGumulinski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSchaniel leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchaniel50%2 of 4
AwayGumulinski33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schaniel4Gumulinski6n = 10Gumulinski took 6 of 10
S2Schaniel5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Schaniel6Gumulinski4n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S4Schaniel6Gumulinski2n = 8Schaniel took 6 of 8
S5Schaniel3Gumulinski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchanielGumulinskiS − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.541.8+2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchanielGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime869 / 1736 vs 1012 / 180350.1%56.1%869 / 1736 vs 1012 / 1803Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiSchaniel 2.20/Gumulinski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 20:20K. Schaniel—9870P. Gumulinski—1111113
WAug 7 · 13:30K. Schaniel—1091311113P. Gumulinski—121111872
WAug 7 · 07:30K. Schaniel—12116113P. Gumulinski—1081131
LJul 27 · 02:45K. Schaniel—91291152P. Gumulinski—1110117113
LJul 26 · 23:05K. Schaniel—111111992P. Gumulinski—513611113
WJul 22 · 11:00K. Schaniel—51111113P. Gumulinski—116871
WJul 22 · 04:55K. Schaniel—4151111113P. Gumulinski—11179882
LJul 14 · 01:50K. Schaniel—11981162P. Gumulinski—511119113
WJul 13 · 18:20K. Schaniel—11111310113P. Gumulinski—133111272
WJul 7 · 24:50K. Schaniel—1111173P. Gumulinski—96150
K. Schaniel10
WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113WSep 5 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.611111113G. Sawicki2.205670WSep 5 · 24:35K. Schaniel1.571111113A. Szurgot2.256870
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
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