TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077484
Played Sep 4Finished
Wojciech Tobiasz
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119811116811
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeWojciech Tobiasz to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
911119811116811
H2H Wojciech Tobiasz 20–8 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Tobiasz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-8 in 28
Tobiasz
Wrong
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tobiasz 1305 vs Kaczmarek 1302
Tobiasz
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tobiasz 20% vs Kaczmarek 40%
Kaczmarek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tobiasz 40% vs Kaczmarek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tobiasz -3 · Kaczmarek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Tobiasz) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTobiasz 1.57 / Kaczmarek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Tobiasz)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13077484
Tobiasz1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 53 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 39 of 56
Kaczmarek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 164 of 501
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 324
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTobiasz6wins
AwayKaczmarek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTobiasz leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTobiasz50%2 of 4
AwayKaczmarek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tobiasz4Kaczmarek6n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S2Tobiasz5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S3Tobiasz5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S4Tobiasz5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S5Tobiasz4Kaczmarek1n = 5Tobiasz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTobiaszKaczmarekT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.543.2+1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTobiaszKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 730 vs 469 / 129146%36.3%336 / 730 vs 469 / 1291Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TobiaszTobiasz 1.57/Kaczmarek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60%
Tobiasz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz—1281081J. Kaczmarek—101112113
WAug 14 · 14:45W. Tobiasz—911126113J. Kaczmarek—118101152
WAug 14 · 11:05W. Tobiasz—1111117113J. Kaczmarek—13691182
WJul 31 · 11:30W. Tobiasz—121113113J. Kaczmarek—1481191
LJul 31 · 07:55W. Tobiasz—9118101J. Kaczmarek—11411123
LJun 15 · 09:05W. Tobiasz—12581492J. Kaczmarek—10111112113
WApr 27 · 17:05W. Tobiasz—11511113J. Kaczmarek—711871
WApr 27 · 08:45W. Tobiasz—881111113J. Kaczmarek—11119832
LMar 16 · 16:55W. Tobiasz—814861J. Kaczmarek—111211113
WMar 16 · 10:55W. Tobiasz—118911123J. Kaczmarek—311116102
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113LSep 4 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.3721111113W. Tobiasz2.75113741WSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:20W. Tobiasz2.358911121O. Jadach1.5011117143LSep 4 · 10:40W. Tobiasz2.5088100S. Szostok1.461111123LSep 4 · 09:05G. Wichowski1.301111143W. Tobiasz3.1085120WSep 4 · 08:20O. Jadach1.351212971W. Tobiasz2.95141011113LSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113WSep 4 · 06:20W. Tobiasz1.86111111113R. Niemiec1.80513991
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380LSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113
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