TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077676
Played Sep 5Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1111311113115––
Patryk Jedrzejak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:02 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePatryk Jedrzejak to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Patryk Jedrzejak below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-4
Point 62 set 4, 8-4 — our read held Patryk Jedrzejak at 60.9%
62 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 11–16 Patryk Jedrzejak Sebastian Szostok has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:02What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jedrzejak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Jedrzejak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1428 vs Jedrzejak 1564
Jedrzejak
Wrong
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Jedrzejak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 80% vs Jedrzejak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Jedrzejak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jedrzejak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 2.20 / Jedrzejak 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jedrzejak)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13077676
Szostok2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 78 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Jedrzejak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 166 of 224
Up 2–0, closes it97% 96 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it87% 127 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok4wins
AwayJedrzejak6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJedrzejak leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok75%3 of 4
AwayJedrzejak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok4Jedrzejak6n = 10Jedrzejak took 6 of 10
S2Szostok5Jedrzejak5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok4Jedrzejak6n = 10Jedrzejak took 6 of 10
S4Szostok3Jedrzejak4n = 7Jedrzejak took 4 of 7
S5Szostok3Jedrzejak3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokJedrzejakS − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.440.4−1.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokJedrzejakBasisWin rate · lifetime933 / 1575 vs 358 / 52659.2%68.1%933 / 1575 vs 358 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JedrzejakSzostok 2.20/Jedrzejak 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Jedrzejak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 13:10S. Szostok—118711113P. Jedrzejak—61111772
LAug 16 · 05:30S. Szostok—77121162P. Jedrzejak—1111107113
LJul 26 · 13:10S. Szostok—7870P. Jedrzejak—1111113
WJul 26 · 05:30S. Szostok—811117123P. Jedrzejak—117711102
LJul 25 · 13:10S. Szostok—91111792P. Jedrzejak—118211113
LJul 25 · 05:30S. Szostok—7116101P. Jedrzejak—11711123
WApr 25 · 13:10S. Szostok—1611113P. Jedrzejak—14750
LApr 25 · 05:30S. Szostok—114101172P. Jedrzejak—411127113
LMar 15 · 14:10S. Szostok—6970P. Jedrzejak—1111113
WMar 15 · 06:30S. Szostok—1111510113P. Jedrzejak—49111292
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113WSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach2.20881191S. Szostok1.5711115113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113
P. Jedrzejak10
LSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113WSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113LSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661LSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:50P. Jedrzejak1.573780J. Wieczerzak2.251111113LSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113WSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 05:40J. Wieczerzak2.009680P. Jedrzejak1.731111113WSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970WSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
P. Jedrzejak
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.