TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077147
Played Sep 5Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115611116113––
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 64 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 1–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1422 vs Sobkow 1465
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 80% vs Sobkow 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 80% vs Sobkow 60%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Sobkow -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.91 / Sobkow 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobkow)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13077147
Szostok1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 78 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back27% 25 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Sobkow1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite62% won 23 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzostok1wins
AwaySobkow1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSzostokSobkowSzostok − SobkowBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.037.00.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime932 / 1573 vs 38 / 6559.3%58.5%932 / 1573 vs 38 / 65Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSzostok 1.91/Sobkow 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 23 · 09:00S. Szostok—11861152Z. Sobkow—711118113
WAug 23 · 04:30S. Szostok—1111113Z. Sobkow—9890
S. Szostok10
LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 5 · 09:00S. Szostok2.109911101W. Wojtaszczyk1.6711115123WSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113WSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113WSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach2.20881191S. Szostok1.5711115113WSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
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