TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13061632
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611117119––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
119611117119––
H2H Jakub Nowak 9–44 Marek Tkocz Jakub Nowak has won 9 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-44 in 53
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 35 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1326 vs Tkocz 1482
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 0% vs Tkocz 80%
Tkocz
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 20% vs Tkocz 70%
Tkocz
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -5 · Tkocz +1
Nowak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.10 / Tkocz 1.65
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Tkocz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13061632
Nowak2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 247 of 674
Down 0–1, comes back22% 91 of 413
Down 0–2, comes back10% 23 of 235
Tkocz1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 318 of 466
Up 2–0, closes it95% 181 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it84% 262 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayTkocz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTkocz77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak1Tkocz9n = 10Tkocz took 9 of 10
S2Nowak3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Nowak5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S4Nowak4Tkocz3n = 7Nowak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakTkoczN − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match32.837.6−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1748 vs 763 / 113738.8%67.1%678 / 1748 vs 763 / 1137Avg sets wonper match1.82.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczNowak 2.10/Tkocz 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.3%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 02:45J. Nowak—7560M. Tkocz—1111113
WJul 29 · 07:35J. Nowak—81111113M. Tkocz—113951
LJul 23 · 23:10J. Nowak—13770M. Tkocz—1511113
LJun 19 · 24:00J. Nowak—4230M. Tkocz—1111113
WJun 12 · 02:20J. Nowak—51111113M. Tkocz—117991
LJun 11 · 20:20J. Nowak—98111152M. Tkocz—111146113
LJun 10 · 02:20J. Nowak—571171M. Tkocz—11119113
LJun 3 · 02:45J. Nowak—691191M. Tkocz—11115113
LMay 20 · 05:10J. Nowak—911841M. Tkocz—11411113
WMay 19 · 23:10J. Nowak—1191013113M. Tkocz—711121182
J. Nowak10
WSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971WSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 3 · 15:10K. Adamus2.03111178113M. Tkocz1.6787111162
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
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M. Tkocz1 of 4 neutral
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