TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065501
Played Sep 3Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
2.03
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118117711811116
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
118117711811116
H2H Kacper Adamus 35–34 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 34 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:11What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (55%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-34 in 69
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1447 vs Tkocz 1465
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Tkocz 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Tkocz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Tkocz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.03 / Tkocz 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13065501
Adamus2.03
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 119 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back23% 27 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Tkocz1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 320 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 181 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it84% 262 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus6wins
AwayTkocz4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%5 of 5
AwayTkocz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus5Tkocz4n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S5Adamus3Tkocz2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusTkoczA − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.1+0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime927 / 1710 vs 763 / 113854.2%67.1%927 / 1710 vs 763 / 1138Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczAdamus 2.03/Tkocz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 02:00K. Adamus—111111113M. Tkocz—513871
LAug 27 · 16:25K. Adamus—191151152M. Tkocz—219116113
WAug 21 · 02:00K. Adamus—11116123M. Tkocz—7811101
LAug 20 · 20:45K. Adamus—611101182M. Tkocz—115129113
LAug 6 · 21:35K. Adamus—8490M. Tkocz—1111113
WAug 6 · 15:35K. Adamus—81111113M. Tkocz—117781
WJul 30 · 22:50K. Adamus—115118113M. Tkocz—81141142
LJul 24 · 24:25K. Adamus—711961M. Tkocz—11711113
WJul 10 · 02:00K. Adamus—116117113M. Tkocz—91181182
WJul 2 · 22:00K. Adamus—118119113M. Tkocz—91181162
K. Adamus10
WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113WSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113LSep 4 · 01:10A. Ruszkiewicz2.5014812133K. Adamus1.45121110111LSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Lebek2.0511113113K. Adamus1.66961181
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 2 · 02:00J. Nowak2.1011611113M. Tkocz1.65911791
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