TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014152
Played Aug 26Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711119611114
Sebastian Krupa
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
115711119611114
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 36–7 Sebastian Krupa Sebastian Krupa has won 7 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-7 in 43
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 29 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1404 vs Krupa 1384
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Krupa 60%
Koczyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 50% vs Krupa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +3 · Krupa -2
Koczyba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.50 / Krupa 2.40
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13014152
Koczyba1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Krupa2.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest78%takes the first set · 7 of 9
As underdog40% won 62 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back15% 13 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba9wins
AwayKrupa1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%5 of 5
AwayKrupa20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Krupa5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba6Krupa4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Krupa3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba7Krupa0n = 7Koczyba took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaKrupaKoczyba − KrupaBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.932.5+6.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaKrupaBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1313 vs 298 / 58966.3%50.6%871 / 1313 vs 298 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.50/Krupa 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 28 · 16:00M. Koczyba—1071112113S. Krupa—121191082
WJun 25 · 24:45M. Koczyba—1111113S. Krupa—9840
WJun 24 · 18:45M. Koczyba—11611113S. Krupa—711981
WJun 17 · 20:00M. Koczyba—11119113S. Krupa—781171
WJun 10 · 22:25M. Koczyba—81111113S. Krupa—116281
WJun 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba—11611113S. Krupa—911461
WJun 3 · 20:00M. Koczyba—811711113S. Krupa—11411982
LMay 27 · 18:45M. Koczyba—8540S. Krupa—1111113
WMay 12 · 18:45M. Koczyba—1111113S. Krupa—5650
WMay 3 · 08:00M. Koczyba—131111113S. Krupa—158771
M. Koczyba10
LSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.5581114113W. Jozala2.251131271WSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.10761211113M. Koczyba1.60111110892WSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133
S. Krupa10
WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 19:10W. Pytlas1.74911121152S. Krupa1.95116149113WSep 9 · 18:25S. Krupa1.5111711113A. Ruszkiewicz2.29911891WSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 16:00W. Jozala2.80119571S. Krupa1.3561111113LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113LSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123WSep 6 · 23:35S. Krupa2.1011119123J. Pruszkowski1.608311101WSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540
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