TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098312
Played Sep 9Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412311111511––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 60.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 49–18 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 18 of their 67 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Marud beat Koczyba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:01What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-18 in 67
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 31 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1259 vs Marud 1507
Marud
Correct
both rated, 248 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 0% vs Marud 100%
Marud
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 0% vs Marud 90%
Marud
Correct
90pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -5 · Marud +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.57 / Marud 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Koczyba)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13098312
Koczyba1.57
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Marud2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 131 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back22% 39 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba10wins
AwayMarud0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%5 of 5
AwayMarud0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba9Marud1n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S3Koczyba9Marud1n = 10Koczyba took 9 of 10
S4Koczyba5Marud0n = 5Koczyba took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaMarudK − MBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.326.8+11.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1313 vs 642 / 136465.5%47.1%860 / 1313 vs 642 / 1364Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.57/Marud 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 19:10M. Koczyba—1111113G. Marud—6640
WJul 14 · 19:10M. Koczyba—1111113G. Marud—6740
WJul 7 · 19:10M. Koczyba—31611133G. Marud—11146111
WJun 30 · 19:10M. Koczyba—1111113G. Marud—8390
WJun 23 · 19:10M. Koczyba—1111113G. Marud—5980
WJun 16 · 16:25M. Koczyba—31111113G. Marud—113361
WJun 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—1111113G. Marud—9230
WMay 26 · 16:25M. Koczyba—1011911113G. Marud—12511772
WMay 12 · 16:25M. Koczyba—71111113G. Marud—119671
WMay 5 · 19:10M. Koczyba—771111113G. Marud—11115392
M. Koczyba10
LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113
G. Marud10
WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba2 of 5 neutral
G. Marud
Nothing scheduled
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