TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097808
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811811––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 10–5 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-5 in 15
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1338 vs Oracz 1545
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 0% vs Oracz 100%
Oracz
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 20% vs Oracz 100%
Oracz
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -5 · Oracz +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.80 / Oracz 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Oracz)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13097808
Koczyba1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Oracz1.91
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 139 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back25% 42 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba7wins
AwayOracz3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba71.4%5 of 7
AwayOracz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba7Oracz3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S2Koczyba5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Koczyba6Oracz4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S5Koczyba4Oracz2n = 6Koczyba took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaOraczK − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime863 / 1313 vs 818 / 146965.7%55.7%863 / 1313 vs 818 / 1469Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKoczyba 1.80/Oracz 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 7 · 19:40M. Koczyba—12115782L. Oracz—1041111113
WJul 22 · 22:50M. Koczyba—119116113L. Oracz—81171182
WJul 15 · 22:25M. Koczyba—115118113L. Oracz—61161182
WJul 9 · 01:10M. Koczyba—81111133L. Oracz—1158111
WJun 30 · 18:25M. Koczyba—13511113L. Oracz—1111761
WJun 24 · 21:35M. Koczyba—117114113L. Oracz—81191192
LMay 21 · 15:35M. Koczyba—411611112L. Oracz—118116133
LMay 16 · 06:25M. Koczyba—116951L. Oracz—71111113
WMay 3 · 04:50M. Koczyba—711711113L. Oracz—11711082
WApr 29 · 24:00M. Koczyba—1111133L. Oracz—56110
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113
L. Oracz10
WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.91L. Oracz1.80—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——Sep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——
L. Oracz
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