TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097269
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11824221012118––
Pawel Adamus
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 24-22
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 106 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 65.7%
106 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 10–4 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Oracz
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1520 vs Adamus 1424
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 100% vs Adamus 40%
Oracz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 80% vs Adamus 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +5 · Adamus -1
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.67 / Adamus 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Oracz)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13097269
Oracz1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 377 of 593
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 295 of 354
Adamus2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 92 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz87.5%7 of 8
AwayAdamusn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz8Adamus2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Oracz6Adamus4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S4Oracz4Adamus3n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Oracz2Adamus1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczAdamusO − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.3+6.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime815 / 1466 vs 361 / 64955.6%55.6%815 / 1466 vs 361 / 649Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.67/Adamus 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.8%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 19:55L. Oracz—118119123P. Adamus—511811102
LJul 9 · 07:10L. Oracz—71181362P. Adamus—1161111113
WJul 5 · 08:00L. Oracz—1110511113P. Adamus—31211772
WJun 17 · 10:10L. Oracz—1111113P. Adamus—7970
LJun 17 · 07:45L. Oracz—9111291P. Adamus—11414113
LMay 14 · 04:25L. Oracz—1111951P. Adamus—71311113
WMay 12 · 06:25L. Oracz—1111113P. Adamus—6470
WMay 7 · 07:10L. Oracz—1113113P. Adamus—71160
WApr 16 · 06:45L. Oracz—11119113P. Adamus—481181
WApr 16 · 24:45L. Oracz—11711113P. Adamus—711671
L. Oracz10
WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113
P. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WSep 1 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.305590P. Adamus1.271111113WSep 1 · 05:35P. Gumulinski1.958101161P. Adamus1.7711128113
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
P. Adamus2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 8 · 20:05P. Adamus1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 8 · 21:00P. Adamus1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 8 · 22:35P. Adamus1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus2.00M. Koczyba1.73—Sep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 9 · 02:10P. Adamus1.39G. Jurowicz2.60—Sep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus—M. Lebek——Sep 9 · 23:10P. Adamus—A. Burkacki——Sep 10 · 24:00P. Adamus—P. Slosarczyk——
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