TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014151
Played Aug 26Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111146111210511
Pawel Adamus
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
9111146111210511
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 6–3 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1426 vs Adamus 1345
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Adamus 20%
Koczyba
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +4 · Adamus -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.70 / Adamus 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13014151
Koczyba1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Adamus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 84 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKoczyba6wins
AwayAdamus3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKoczyba leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayAdamus50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Adamus4n = 9Koczyba took 5 of 9
S2Koczyba7Adamus2n = 9Koczyba took 7 of 9
S3Koczyba4Adamus5n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S4Koczyba3Adamus5n = 8Adamus took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKoczybaAdamusK − ABasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.335.1+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1315 vs 379 / 68666.4%55.3%873 / 1315 vs 379 / 686Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.70/Adamus 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 21 · 18:30M. Koczyba—713561P. Adamus—111111113
WJul 2 · 18:25M. Koczyba—11117113P. Adamus—771151
LApr 30 · 02:00M. Koczyba—1110891P. Adamus—71211113
WApr 29 · 16:25M. Koczyba—11118113P. Adamus—581161
WFeb 10 · 19:25M. Koczyba—5111112113P. Adamus—11591492
LNov 1 · 08:35M. Koczyba—911991P. Adamus—11711113
WSep 6 · 06:00M. Koczyba—1111113P. Adamus—5460
WJul 23 · 15:10M. Koczyba—118119113P. Adamus—51131192
WJul 16 · 15:10M. Koczyba—91111113P. Adamus—116391
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142
P. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——
P. Adamus2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 8 · 20:05P. Adamus1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 8 · 21:00P. Adamus1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 8 · 22:35P. Adamus1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus1.91M. Koczyba1.80—Sep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 9 · 02:10P. Adamus1.39G. Jurowicz2.60—Sep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus—M. Lebek——Sep 9 · 23:10P. Adamus—A. Burkacki——Sep 10 · 24:00P. Adamus—P. Slosarczyk——
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