TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13014149
Played Aug 26Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511118117114––
Mariusz Koczyba
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
511118117114––
H2H Pawel Adamus 4–7 Mariusz Koczyba Pawel Adamus has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1365 vs Koczyba 1419
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Koczyba 80%
Koczyba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Koczyba 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Koczyba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.10 / Koczyba 1.66
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Koczyba)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13014149
Adamus2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 84 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Koczyba1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 361 of 534
Up 2–0, closes it95% 191 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it83% 261 of 316
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayKoczyba6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus60%3 of 5
AwayKoczyba80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Koczyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus2Koczyba8n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Adamus6Koczyba4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus6Koczyba3n = 9Adamus took 6 of 9
S5Adamus1Koczyba3n = 4Koczyba took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusKoczybaA − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.741.0−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 689 vs 874 / 131755.3%66.4%381 / 689 vs 874 / 1317Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaAdamus 2.10/Koczyba 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 20:00P. Adamus—1141110113M. Koczyba—91161252
LAug 4 · 15:25P. Adamus—111061152M. Koczyba—612116113
WJul 21 · 18:30P. Adamus—111111113M. Koczyba—713561
LJul 2 · 18:25P. Adamus—771151M. Koczyba—11117113
WApr 30 · 02:00P. Adamus—71211113M. Koczyba—1110891
LApr 29 · 16:25P. Adamus—581161M. Koczyba—11118113
LFeb 10 · 19:25P. Adamus—11591492M. Koczyba—5111112113
WNov 1 · 08:35P. Adamus—11711113M. Koczyba—911991
LSep 6 · 06:00P. Adamus—5460M. Koczyba—1111113
LJul 23 · 15:10P. Adamus—51131192M. Koczyba—118119113
P. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971LSep 6 · 22:25P. Adamus1.60111114442S. Krupa2.151391211113LSep 6 · 21:10P. Adamus2.0011313131J. Pruszkowski1.7091115153WSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113WSep 1 · 07:35J. Kaczmarek3.305590P. Adamus1.271111113
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740WAug 26 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.361111113O. Sokolowski2.957980LAug 26 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.7091161252P. Adamus2.001141110113WAug 26 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.50117116113S. Krupa2.4051191142
Upcoming Matches
P. Adamus2 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:20P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 8 · 20:05P. Adamus1.57G. Jurowicz2.25—Sep 8 · 21:00P. Adamus1.83L. Oracz1.83—Sep 8 · 22:35P. Adamus1.67G. Marud2.10—Sep 8 · 23:20P. Adamus1.91M. Koczyba1.80—Sep 9 · 01:25P. Adamus1.61J. Nowak2.20—Sep 9 · 02:10P. Adamus1.39G. Jurowicz2.60—Sep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus—M. Lebek——Sep 9 · 23:10P. Adamus—A. Burkacki——Sep 10 · 24:00P. Adamus—P. Slosarczyk——
M. Koczyba1 of 10 neutral
Sep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36J. Nowak3.00—Sep 8 · 22:10M. Koczyba1.80L. Oracz1.91—Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.27G. Jurowicz3.20—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——
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