TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098277
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114611119116––
Mariusz Koczyba
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Mariusz Koczyba below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 69 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 5–10 Mariusz Koczyba Lukasz Oracz has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Oracz beat Koczyba 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:50What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1545 vs Koczyba 1301
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 244 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Koczyba 0%
Oracz
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 90% vs Koczyba 10%
Oracz
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Koczyba -5
Koczyba
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.80 / Koczyba 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098277
Oracz1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 377 of 593
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 295 of 354
Koczyba1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 26 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayKoczyba7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz33.3%1 of 3
AwayKoczyba71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Koczyba7n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S2Oracz5Koczyba5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz4Koczyba6n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Oracz5Koczyba4n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S5Oracz2Koczyba4n = 6Koczyba took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczKoczybaO − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.0−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczKoczybaBasisWin rate · lifetime820 / 1472 vs 861 / 131355.7%65.6%820 / 1472 vs 861 / 1313Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.80/Koczyba 1.91
Hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 19:40L. Oracz—1041111113M. Koczyba—12115782
LJul 22 · 22:50L. Oracz—81171182M. Koczyba—119116113
LJul 15 · 22:25L. Oracz—61161182M. Koczyba—115118113
LJul 9 · 01:10L. Oracz—1158111M. Koczyba—81111133
LJun 30 · 18:25L. Oracz—1111761M. Koczyba—13511113
LJun 24 · 21:35L. Oracz—81191192M. Koczyba—117114113
WMay 21 · 15:35L. Oracz—118116133M. Koczyba—411611112
WMay 16 · 06:25L. Oracz—71111113M. Koczyba—116951
LMay 3 · 04:50L. Oracz—11711082M. Koczyba—711711113
LApr 29 · 24:00L. Oracz—56110M. Koczyba—1111133
L. Oracz10
LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
M. Koczyba1 of 7 neutral
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