TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098049
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711911––––
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 65.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 11–5 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Oracz beat Adamus 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:41What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1552 vs Adamus 1417
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 100% vs Adamus 40%
Oracz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 100% vs Adamus 40%
Oracz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +5 · Adamus -1
Oracz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.83 / Adamus 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13098049
Oracz1.83
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Adamus1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz85.7%6 of 7
AwayAdamus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Adamus3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz7Adamus3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Adamus3n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5Oracz2Adamus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczAdamusO − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.7+4.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime819 / 1470 vs 363 / 65355.7%55.6%819 / 1470 vs 363 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.83/Adamus 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz—112410113P. Adamus—8221281
LAug 18 · 01:30L. Oracz—41171192P. Adamus—116117113
WAug 17 · 19:55L. Oracz—118119123P. Adamus—511811102
LJul 9 · 07:10L. Oracz—71181362P. Adamus—1161111113
WJul 5 · 08:00L. Oracz—1110511113P. Adamus—31211772
WJun 17 · 10:10L. Oracz—1111113P. Adamus—7970
LJun 17 · 07:45L. Oracz—9111291P. Adamus—11414113
LMay 14 · 04:25L. Oracz—1111951P. Adamus—71311113
WMay 12 · 06:25L. Oracz—1111113P. Adamus—6470
WMay 7 · 07:10L. Oracz—1113113P. Adamus—71160
L. Oracz10
WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280
P. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971
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