TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098046
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91131111413111113
Jakub Nowak
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Koczyba above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Mariusz Koczyba at 70.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 53–4 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 4 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nowak beat Koczyba 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Koczyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-4 in 57
Koczyba
Wrong
gap of 49 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1331 vs Nowak 1288
Koczyba
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 0% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 20% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -5 · Nowak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (0%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.36 / Nowak 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Koczyba)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098046
Koczyba1.36
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 180 of 190
Up 1–0, closes it82% 242 of 296
Nowak3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 247 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 415
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayNowak2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%8 of 8
AwayNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba8Nowak2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S2Koczyba8Nowak2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S3Koczyba8Nowak2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S4Koczyba2Nowak1n = 3Koczyba took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaNowakK − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.828.5+8.3per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime863 / 1313 vs 671 / 174165.7%38.5%863 / 1313 vs 671 / 1741Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.36/Nowak 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.3%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba—881631J. Nowak—111114113
WAug 5 · 20:00M. Koczyba—129812113J. Nowak—1011111052
WJul 26 · 03:35M. Koczyba—1119113J. Nowak—91770
WJul 1 · 20:00M. Koczyba—1111113J. Nowak—6350
WJun 28 · 16:50M. Koczyba—1111113J. Nowak—7780
WJun 17 · 01:45M. Koczyba—1111113J. Nowak—7460
WJun 11 · 17:35M. Koczyba—1111113J. Nowak—5750
WJun 2 · 22:25M. Koczyba—1111113J. Nowak—5870
WMay 31 · 05:10M. Koczyba—1112113J. Nowak—51060
LMay 30 · 03:05M. Koczyba—71181142J. Nowak—119115113
M. Koczyba10
LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411LSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LAug 27 · 02:00M. Koczyba1.454111251P. Kurek2.50111310113LAug 27 · 24:45M. Koczyba1.367119111S. Krupa2.8511911133WAug 26 · 23:35M. Koczyba1.661111113M. Lebek2.104740LAug 26 · 22:25P. Adamus2.1051111113M. Koczyba1.66118741
J. Nowak10
LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133
Upcoming Matches
M. Koczyba1 of 8 neutral
Sep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80P. Adamus1.91—Sep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73G. Jurowicz2.00—Sep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57G. Marud2.25—Sep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 9 · 16:25M. Koczyba—W. Pytlas——Sep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba—M. Baron——Sep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—W. Jozala——Sep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba—S. Krupa——
J. Nowak
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