TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097446
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118611118711711
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Jurowicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Jurowicz above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Grzegorz Jurowicz at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 6–9 Jakub Nowak Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:59What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Nowak
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1288 vs Nowak 1300
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 40% vs Nowak 60%
Nowak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 40% vs Nowak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz -2 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 2.00 / Nowak 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Nowak)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13097446
Jurowicz2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 92 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 83
Nowak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 74 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it68% 52 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJurowicz5wins
AwayNowak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJurowicz57.1%4 of 7
AwayNowak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jurowicz7Nowak3n = 10Jurowicz took 7 of 10
S2Jurowicz4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Jurowicz5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Jurowicz3Nowak4n = 7Nowak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJurowiczNowakJ − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.4+1.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime313 / 793 vs 672 / 174039.5%38.6%313 / 793 vs 672 / 1740Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakJurowicz 2.00/Nowak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 6 · 05:55G. Jurowicz—111511852J. Nowak—517711113
LMar 4 · 12:30G. Jurowicz—971181J. Nowak—11117113
WMar 4 · 08:10G. Jurowicz—1111113J. Nowak—9990
WDec 24 · 24:10G. Jurowicz—111110113J. Nowak—471291
WOct 17 · 15:05G. Jurowicz—91111123J. Nowak—1186101
LOct 17 · 06:45G. Jurowicz—139681J. Nowak—111111113
WSep 15 · 11:30G. Jurowicz—119711113J. Nowak—81111892
WSep 3 · 13:55G. Jurowicz—1112113J. Nowak—71040
LSep 3 · 07:55G. Jurowicz—127120J. Nowak—1411143
LJul 15 · 14:45G. Jurowicz—1187101J. Nowak—41111123
G. Jurowicz10
LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113LSep 4 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.651111113G. Jurowicz2.101840WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590WSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123LSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 21:35K. Hetnar1.295890G. Jurowicz3.301111113LSep 3 · 20:45K. Adamus1.3311811113G. Jurowicz2.95611891LSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 18:25S. Szostok1.3512511113G. Jurowicz2.801011661
J. Nowak10
WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133LSep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak2.903660O. Jadach1.351111113LSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113LSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153LSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782
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