TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090351
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
101210121315––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:57 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
101210121315––––
H2H Jakub Nowak 7–15 Pawel Kurek Jakub Nowak has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-15 in 22
Kurek
Correct
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1310 vs Kurek 1409
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 60% vs Kurek 40%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.20 / Kurek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kurek)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13090351
Nowak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 243 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back21% 87 of 410
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 237
Kurek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 202 of 305
Up 2–0, closes it93% 97 of 104
Up 1–0, closes it84% 143 of 170
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayKurek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak25%1 of 4
AwayKurek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S2Nowak3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S3Nowak3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Nowak3Kurek4n = 7Kurek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakKurekN − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.9−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime671 / 1736 vs 380 / 75838.7%50.1%671 / 1736 vs 380 / 758Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekNowak 2.20/Kurek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.4%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 10:10J. Nowak—81111113P. Kurek—116851
LJul 31 · 07:45J. Nowak—91090P. Kurek—1112113
LJul 30 · 10:10J. Nowak—117119122P. Kurek—711611143
LJul 30 · 07:45J. Nowak—97100P. Kurek—1111123
LJul 25 · 12:15J. Nowak—115991P. Kurek—81111113
WJul 25 · 08:35J. Nowak—11612133P. Kurek—81110111
WJul 21 · 10:35J. Nowak—1011711123P. Kurek—128119102
LJul 21 · 08:10J. Nowak—811100P. Kurek—1113123
LJul 16 · 18:45J. Nowak—511461P. Kurek—11911113
LJun 30 · 23:45J. Nowak—124551P. Kurek—101111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782WSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 04:55J. Nowak1.83111351292P. Przewlocki1.835111114113LSep 7 · 03:50J. Nowak2.2511173882J. Pruszkowski1.579151111113WSep 7 · 02:20J. Nowak2.251112113J. Pruszkowski1.5781070WSep 7 · 24:45S. Krupa1.571197101J. Nowak2.2591111123LSep 7 · 24:00P. Adamus1.4712911113J. Nowak2.401011971
P. Kurek10
WSep 7 · 19:10O. Jadach1.559101491P. Kurek2.25111212113WSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113
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