TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090348
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.70
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1194111189111113
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:57 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
1194111189111113
H2H Jakub Nowak 17–22 Kacper Adamus Jakub Nowak has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nowak beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (66%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-22 in 39
Adamus
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1270 vs Adamus 1413
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 30% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -4 · Adamus +2
Nowak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.70 / Adamus 1.37
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Adamus)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090348
Nowak2.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 243 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back21% 87 of 410
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 237
Adamus1.37
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 360 of 590
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it78% 287 of 367
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak100%4 of 4
AwayAdamus83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Nowak5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Nowak4Adamus5n = 9Adamus took 5 of 9
S5Nowak5Adamus1n = 6Nowak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakAdamusN − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.944.9−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime670 / 1736 vs 922 / 170938.6%54%670 / 1736 vs 922 / 1709Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusNowak 2.70/Adamus 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 07:10J. Nowak—9690K. Adamus—1111113
LJul 23 · 22:00J. Nowak—761191K. Adamus—11119113
WJul 23 · 20:45J. Nowak—111148113K. Adamus—99111172
LJul 16 · 22:25J. Nowak—811911142K. Adamus—119116163
LJul 16 · 18:00J. Nowak—812791K. Adamus—111011113
WJun 19 · 01:10J. Nowak—116613113K. Adamus—911111192
LJun 11 · 22:50J. Nowak—711761K. Adamus—11611113
WJun 11 · 15:10J. Nowak—1141111113K. Adamus—91113882
WMay 15 · 01:35J. Nowak—9111011113K. Adamus—11912782
WMay 1 · 01:10J. Nowak—119118113K. Adamus—81171182
J. Nowak10
LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak2.903660O. Jadach1.351111113LSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113LSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153LSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782WSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113LSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130
K. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 23:05M. Sikon2.7599100K. Adamus1.361111123WSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171LSep 7 · 20:45O. Jadach1.8071111113K. Adamus1.85118961WSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162LSep 5 · 06:00K. Adamus2.456850P. Zemla1.471111113WSep 5 · 04:25K. Adamus1.391111113R. Adach2.706740LSep 5 · 03:10K. Adamus1.3598111492O. Sokolowski2.801111712113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.