TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098579
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116611811711––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 7–13 Grzegorz Marud Lukasz Oracz has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Marud 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Marud
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1523 vs Marud 1494
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Marud 80%
Marud
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 80% vs Marud 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Marud +4
Marud
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.83 / Marud 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13098579
Oracz1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Marud1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz3wins
AwayMarud7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%2 of 4
AwayMarud83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S2Oracz5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Oracz2Marud4n = 6Marud took 4 of 6
S5Oracz1Marud2n = 3Marud took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczMarudO − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.536.6−3.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime820 / 1473 vs 641 / 136355.7%47%820 / 1473 vs 641 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.83/Marud 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 18:55L. Oracz—1111113G. Marud—7520
WSep 7 · 24:20L. Oracz—711711113G. Marud—11711382
LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz—125131022G. Marud—10111112113
LAug 3 · 02:20L. Oracz—7440G. Marud—1111113
LAug 2 · 18:20L. Oracz—118561G. Marud—71111113
LJul 21 · 23:35L. Oracz—91191162G. Marud—115116113
WJul 15 · 01:10L. Oracz—1111113G. Marud—6890
LJul 6 · 03:05L. Oracz—614781G. Marud—111211113
LJul 5 · 21:05L. Oracz—971151G. Marud—11115113
LJul 5 · 04:00L. Oracz—51070G. Marud—1112113
L. Oracz10
WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113
G. Marud10
WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Sep 10 · 03:40L. Oracz1.28M. Sikon3.50—Sep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.00K. Slawinski1.73—Sep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.73W. Urban2.00—Sep 10 · 06:55L. Oracz1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 10 · 07:45L. Oracz1.44R. Idaczyk2.63—Sep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.00K. Slawinski1.73—Sep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.44R. Idaczyk2.63—Sep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.28M. Sikon3.50—Sep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.73W. Urban2.00—
G. Marud
Nothing scheduled
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