TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098198
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117511811––
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Grzegorz Jurowicz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 65.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 24–13 Grzegorz Jurowicz Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 13 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Oracz beat Jurowicz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-13 in 37
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1545 vs Jurowicz 1264
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 281 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Jurowicz 40%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 90% vs Jurowicz 40%
Oracz
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Jurowicz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.50 / Jurowicz 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13098198
Oracz1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 377 of 593
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 295 of 354
Jurowicz2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 92 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayJurowicz3wins
Oracz leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%6 of 6
AwayJurowicz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Jurowicz4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz6Jurowicz4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz8Jurowicz2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz2Jurowicz1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczJurowiczO − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.930.1+3.8per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczJurowiczBasisWin rate · lifetime820 / 1472 vs 314 / 79855.7%39.4%820 / 1472 vs 314 / 798Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.50/Jurowicz 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jurowicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 15:50L. Oracz—1111113G. Jurowicz—7760
WMay 28 · 14:20L. Oracz—1311113G. Jurowicz—11860
WMay 28 · 06:20L. Oracz—1111153G. Jurowicz—95130
WMay 8 · 11:30L. Oracz—12911113G. Jurowicz—1011981
LMay 8 · 07:10L. Oracz—71280G. Jurowicz—1114113
LApr 14 · 15:55L. Oracz—101060G. Jurowicz—1212113
WApr 14 · 09:55L. Oracz—1111113G. Jurowicz—8480
LApr 10 · 15:55L. Oracz—751181G. Jurowicz—11118113
WApr 10 · 09:55L. Oracz—1111113G. Jurowicz—9780
WApr 9 · 13:30L. Oracz—81111113G. Jurowicz—117891
L. Oracz10
LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123LSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113LSep 4 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.651111113G. Jurowicz2.101840WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590
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