TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098475
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Jurowicz
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11611131189111012
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:02 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Jurowicz above · Jakub Nowak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Nowak at 54.1%
102 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Jurowicz 7–10 Jakub Nowak Grzegorz Jurowicz has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nowak beat Jurowicz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jurowicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Nowak
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jurowicz 1273 vs Nowak 1334
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jurowicz 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jurowicz 40% vs Nowak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jurowicz -1 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jurowicz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJurowicz 1.80 / Nowak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jurowicz)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098475
Jurowicz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 54 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Nowak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 247 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 415
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJurowicz6wins
AwayNowak4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJurowicz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJurowicz62.5%5 of 8
AwayNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jurowicz8Nowak2n = 10Jurowicz took 8 of 10
S2Jurowicz4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Jurowicz6Nowak4n = 10Jurowicz took 6 of 10
S4Jurowicz4Nowak4n = 8split evenly
S5Jurowicz2Nowak2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJurowiczNowakJ − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.6+2.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJurowiczNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 798 vs 672 / 174139.4%38.6%314 / 798 vs 672 / 1741Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JurowiczJurowicz 1.80/Nowak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jurowicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz—11611772J. Nowak—811811113
WJul 6 · 11:55G. Jurowicz—118711113J. Nowak—11111892
LJul 6 · 05:55G. Jurowicz—111511852J. Nowak—517711113
LMar 4 · 12:30G. Jurowicz—971181J. Nowak—11117113
WMar 4 · 08:10G. Jurowicz—1111113J. Nowak—9990
WDec 24 · 24:10G. Jurowicz—111110113J. Nowak—471291
WOct 17 · 15:05G. Jurowicz—91111123J. Nowak—1186101
LOct 17 · 06:45G. Jurowicz—139681J. Nowak—111111113
WSep 15 · 11:30G. Jurowicz—119711113J. Nowak—81111892
WSep 3 · 13:55G. Jurowicz—1112113J. Nowak—71040
G. Jurowicz10
WSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113LSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470LSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113LSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113LSep 4 · 02:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.651111113G. Jurowicz2.101840WSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590WSep 4 · 24:25K. Adamus1.35981212102G. Jurowicz2.9511111010123
J. Nowak10
LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113WSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153
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