TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099468
Played Sep 9Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4117111151412116
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:29 and never touched — 70.0% is still 70.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
70.0%
70.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
4117111151412116
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 54–10 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 10 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:29What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-10 in 64
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 44 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1264 vs Baron 1340
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 20% vs Baron 40%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 10% vs Baron 30%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.55 / Baron 2.30
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Koczyba)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13099468
Koczyba1.55
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 333 of 507
Up 2–0, closes it95% 176 of 186
Up 1–0, closes it82% 238 of 291
Baron2.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 195 of 491
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 271
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba8wins
AwayBaron2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%4 of 4
AwayBaron33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Koczyba7Baron3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S3Koczyba8Baron2n = 10Koczyba took 8 of 10
S4Koczyba2Baron4n = 6Baron took 4 of 6
S5Koczyba4Baron0n = 4Koczyba took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaBaronK − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.634.4+5.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime858 / 1313 vs 873 / 180865.4%48.3%858 / 1313 vs 873 / 1808Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.55/Baron 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 04:00M. Koczyba—1111113M. Baron—9590
LAug 13 · 02:00M. Koczyba—5850M. Baron—1111113
WAug 5 · 21:35M. Koczyba—111273113M. Baron—510111132
WAug 5 · 15:35M. Koczyba—711135113M. Baron—113111182
LJul 2 · 16:50M. Koczyba—7911161M. Baron—11117183
WJun 24 · 22:25M. Koczyba—781111113M. Baron—11115752
WJun 17 · 01:00M. Koczyba—61111113M. Baron—112641
WJun 11 · 02:00M. Koczyba—1112123M. Baron—910100
WJun 10 · 16:25M. Koczyba—10111113113M. Baron—12671532
WJun 3 · 16:25M. Koczyba—1111113M. Baron—8690
M. Koczyba10
LSep 9 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.10761211113M. Koczyba1.60111110892WSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.4413560G. Jurowicz2.631511113LSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113
M. Baron10
LSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 15:10W. Pytlas1.5671141152M. Baron2.17118113113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Baron2.358980J. Pruszkowski1.521111113WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baron2.25121210113S. Szostok1.5510101241LSep 8 · 14:20M. Baron1.8741215992O. Vincenec1.8311101311113LSep 8 · 12:45M. Baron2.609124101K. Slawinski1.42111011123LSep 8 · 11:30M. Baron1.739111631W. Buczynski2.0011918113WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133
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