TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097274
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
121012101012114––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
121012101012114––
H2H Mariusz Baron 19–31 Sebastian Szostok Mariusz Baron has won 19 of their 50 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szostok beat Baron 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:43What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-31 in 50
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 12 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1329 vs Szostok 1501
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Szostok 60%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 30% vs Szostok 70%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -3 · Szostok -1
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.25 / Szostok 1.55
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Szostok)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13097274
Baron2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 268
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 139
Szostok1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 329 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 123 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it78% 211 of 270
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron42.9%3 of 7
AwaySzostok66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Szostok3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron4Szostok6n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S3Baron6Szostok4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Baron4Szostok5n = 9Szostok took 5 of 9
S5Baron1Szostok4n = 5Szostok took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronSzostokB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.544.7−1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1814 vs 939 / 158548.3%59.2%876 / 1814 vs 939 / 1585Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokBaron 2.25/Szostok 1.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 09:30M. Baron—11101191S. Szostok—13127113
LAug 24 · 13:05M. Baron—81631252S. Szostok—11141110113
WAug 24 · 06:55M. Baron—118811113S. Szostok—71111982
LAug 14 · 21:00M. Baron—14711872S. Szostok—1211911113
WAug 14 · 16:35M. Baron—11913113S. Szostok—8111191
LAug 10 · 01:55M. Baron—11711552S. Szostok—911911113
LAug 9 · 19:55M. Baron—11141015102S. Szostok—8121217123
WAug 7 · 13:30M. Baron—81111113S. Szostok—115981
LAug 7 · 07:20M. Baron—1295111S. Szostok—101111133
WJul 13 · 04:20M. Baron—1111113S. Szostok—5670
M. Baron10
LSep 8 · 14:20M. Baron1.8741215992O. Vincenec1.8311101311113LSep 8 · 12:45M. Baron2.609124101K. Slawinski1.42111011123LSep 8 · 11:30M. Baron1.739111631W. Buczynski2.0011918113WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392WSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113
S. Szostok10
WSep 8 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.67111013151S. Szostok2.0041215173LSep 8 · 14:45S. Szostok1.78811671J. Pruszkowski1.9111811113WSep 8 · 13:10S. Szostok1.531051111113W. Buczynski2.3612119472LSep 8 · 12:20O. Vincenec2.2011126113S. Szostok1.576101171WSep 8 · 11:05S. Szostok1.85711117113J. Pruszkowski1.8011871172WSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191WSep 8 · 08:20S. Szostok1.4611117113O. Vincenec2.40691171LSep 8 · 06:45S. Szostok2.05871161K. Slawinski1.6611118113WSep 8 · 05:30S. Szostok1.3713811113W. Buczynski2.701111691WSep 7 · 17:05P. Mecik2.90115101192S. Szostok1.35911125113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron1 of 3 neutral
S. Szostok
Nothing scheduled
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