TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097046
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.87
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41112101513911911
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
105 points played in total.
Set by set
41112101513911911
H2H Mariusz Baron 17–15 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Baron beat Vincenec 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Baron
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1340 vs Vincenec 1370
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Vincenec 40%
Vincenec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Vincenec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -2 · Vincenec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.87 / Vincenec 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13097046
Baron1.87
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 268
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 139
Vincenec1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 147 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it88% 65 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 105 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayVincenec5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron80%4 of 5
AwayVincenec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Baron2Vincenec8n = 10Vincenec took 8 of 10
S3Baron6Vincenec4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Baron7Vincenec2n = 9Baron took 7 of 9
S5Baron2Vincenec3n = 5Vincenec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronVincenecB − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.941.1+3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1813 vs 648 / 143648.3%45.1%876 / 1813 vs 648 / 1436Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecBaron 1.87/Vincenec 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 06:20M. Baron—991117123O. Vincenec—1111115102
LSep 1 · 13:30M. Baron—8913101O. Vincenec—111111123
WSep 1 · 07:20M. Baron—11117113O. Vincenec—581151
LAug 28 · 11:30M. Baron—115101182O. Vincenec—511129113
WAug 28 · 07:10M. Baron—12411113O. Vincenec—1011491
WAug 17 · 04:40M. Baron—121111113O. Vincenec—1031371
LAug 16 · 22:40M. Baron—1210111192O. Vincenec—141293113
WJul 10 · 23:20M. Baron—119119133O. Vincenec—511911112
LJul 10 · 17:20M. Baron—1291111122O. Vincenec—141124143
LMay 25 · 04:20M. Baron—5980O. Vincenec—1111113
M. Baron10
WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baron2.25121210113S. Szostok1.5510101241LSep 8 · 12:45M. Baron2.609124101K. Slawinski1.42111011123LSep 8 · 11:30M. Baron1.739111631W. Buczynski2.0011918113WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392WSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113
O. Vincenec10
LSep 8 · 15:05K. Slawinski1.3611913113O. Vincenec2.755111181LSep 8 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.4583100J. Pruszkowski1.451111123WSep 8 · 12:20O. Vincenec2.2011126113S. Szostok1.576101171LSep 8 · 10:40O. Vincenec1.828880W. Buczynski1.881111113WSep 8 · 09:05K. Slawinski1.3691181192O. Vincenec2.75116119113LSep 8 · 08:20S. Szostok1.4611117113O. Vincenec2.40691171WSep 8 · 07:30O. Vincenec2.3711112113J. Pruszkowski1.52991191LSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron1 of 3 neutral
O. Vincenec
Sep 8 · 16:40O. Vincenec1.69W. Buczynski1.97—Sep 9 · 03:50O. Vincenec1.80P. Kurek1.91—Sep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.10P. Gumulinski1.67—Sep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.91K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 9 · 06:55O. Vincenec2.00R. Gajda1.73—Sep 9 · 07:45O. Vincenec1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10P. Gumulinski1.67—Sep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.80P. Kurek1.91—Sep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.00R. Gajda1.73—
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