TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13095337
Played Sep 8Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.47
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111210711119––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.39
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:46 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
13111210711119––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 30–19 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (62%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-19 in 49
Szostok
Correct
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1513 vs Baron 1348
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 80% vs Baron 40%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 90% vs Baron 50%
Szostok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +1 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.47 / Baron 2.39
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Szostok)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13095337
Szostok1.47
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 329 of 514
Up 2–0, closes it94% 123 of 131
Up 1–0, closes it78% 211 of 270
Baron2.39
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 268
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayBaron4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBaron37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok2Baron8n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S2Szostok5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S4Szostok5Baron4n = 9Szostok took 5 of 9
S5Szostok5Baron1n = 6Szostok took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokBaronS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match44.643.4+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime936 / 1580 vs 875 / 180959.2%48.4%936 / 1580 vs 875 / 1809Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.47/Baron 2.39
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 13:05S. Szostok—11141110113M. Baron—81631252
LAug 24 · 06:55S. Szostok—71111982M. Baron—118811113
WAug 14 · 21:00S. Szostok—1211911113M. Baron—14711872
LAug 14 · 16:35S. Szostok—8111191M. Baron—11913113
WAug 10 · 01:55S. Szostok—911911113M. Baron—11711552
WAug 9 · 19:55S. Szostok—8121217123M. Baron—11141015102
LAug 7 · 13:30S. Szostok—115981M. Baron—81111113
WAug 7 · 07:20S. Szostok—101111133M. Baron—1295111
LJul 13 · 04:20S. Szostok—5670M. Baron—1111113
WJul 12 · 18:45S. Szostok—541111113M. Baron—11114682
S. Szostok10
WSep 8 · 08:20S. Szostok1.4611117113O. Vincenec2.40691171LSep 8 · 06:45S. Szostok2.05871161K. Slawinski1.6611118113WSep 8 · 05:30S. Szostok1.3713811113W. Buczynski2.701111691WSep 7 · 17:05P. Mecik2.90115101192S. Szostok1.35911125113WSep 7 · 15:55S. Szostok1.509111111113W. Tobiasz2.4011981342WSep 7 · 14:45G. Wichowski1.75791391S. Szostok1.95111111113WSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.25971151S. Szostok1.5411118113WSep 7 · 11:05G. Wichowski1.836990S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582
M. Baron10
WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392WSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113
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