TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093369
Played Sep 7Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111191181113114
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched — 76.0% is still 76.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
76.0%
76.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
9111191181113114
H2H Sebastian Szostok 12–4 Wojciech Tobiasz Wojciech Tobiasz has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szostok beat Tobiasz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Szostok
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1499 vs Tobiasz 1261
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 100% vs Tobiasz 0%
Szostok
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 80% vs Tobiasz 20%
Szostok
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +5 · Tobiasz -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.50 / Tobiasz 2.40
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Szostok)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13093369
Szostok1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 325 of 508
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it78% 210 of 269
Tobiasz2.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 82 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok7wins
AwayTobiasz3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok100%5 of 5
AwayTobiasz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok5Tobiasz5n = 10split evenly
S2Szostok5Tobiasz5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok6Tobiasz4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S4Szostok6Tobiasz0n = 6Szostok took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokTobiaszS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.034.7+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime941 / 1585 vs 337 / 73759.4%45.7%941 / 1585 vs 337 / 737Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.50/Tobiasz 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 16:40S. Szostok—116711113W. Tobiasz—51111572
WSep 4 · 10:40S. Szostok—1111123W. Tobiasz—88100
WMar 16 · 09:45S. Szostok—11911123W. Tobiasz—6117101
LJan 5 · 14:10S. Szostok—4990W. Tobiasz—1111113
WJan 5 · 06:30S. Szostok—91111123W. Tobiasz—1167101
WSep 20 · 12:45S. Szostok—12115113W. Tobiasz—1081191
LSep 20 · 08:45S. Szostok—79120W. Tobiasz—1111143
WAug 16 · 04:00S. Szostok—101111113W. Tobiasz—127791
WJun 27 · 13:30S. Szostok—1111113W. Tobiasz—7780
LJun 27 · 07:30S. Szostok—48111152W. Tobiasz—111189113
S. Szostok10
WSep 7 · 14:45G. Wichowski1.75791391S. Szostok1.95111111113WSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.25971151S. Szostok1.5411118113WSep 7 · 11:05G. Wichowski1.836990S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582LSep 7 · 08:45P. Mecik3.4011811113S. Szostok1.28811891WSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731LSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102LSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990LSep 7 · 11:30P. Mecik1.9571111113W. Tobiasz1.75115851LSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532LSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582WSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113WSep 7 · 07:10P. Mecik2.0511871132W. Tobiasz1.68611114113LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
W. Tobiasz
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.