TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092333
Played Sep 7Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.71
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611611911––––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
611611911––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 13–15 Sebastian Szostok Rafal Skotniczny has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Szostok beat Skotniczny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-15 in 28
Szostok
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1453 vs Szostok 1475
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Szostok 80%
Szostok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 80% vs Szostok 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +3 · Szostok +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.71 / Szostok 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotniczny)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13092333
Skotniczny1.71
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Szostok2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 80 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwaySzostok4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny57.1%4 of 7
AwaySzostok33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Szostok3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Szostok4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny7Szostok3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S4Skotniczny4Szostok2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5Skotniczny1Szostok3n = 4Szostok took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznySzostokSkotniczny − SzostokBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.734.3+5.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznySzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1004 vs 939 / 158357.6%59.3%578 / 1004 vs 939 / 1583Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.71/Szostok 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny—11891142S. Szostok—511118113
WJul 14 · 06:05R. Skotniczny—1111113S. Szostok—5870
WJul 10 · 15:05R. Skotniczny—1261111113S. Szostok—14115952
WJul 10 · 09:05R. Skotniczny—1311113S. Szostok—11660
WMay 14 · 13:30R. Skotniczny—1111113S. Szostok—5750
LMay 14 · 07:30R. Skotniczny—119111082S. Szostok—911712113
WMar 31 · 13:55R. Skotniczny—91111113S. Szostok—116871
WMar 31 · 07:55R. Skotniczny—1711113S. Szostok—15840
LFeb 12 · 13:45R. Skotniczny—51171162S. Szostok—117113113
LFeb 12 · 11:20R. Skotniczny—1111551S. Szostok—61311113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740
S. Szostok10
WSep 7 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.25971151S. Szostok1.5411118113WSep 7 · 11:05G. Wichowski1.836990S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582LSep 7 · 08:45P. Mecik3.4011811113S. Szostok1.28811891WSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113LSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 5 · 14:40S. Szostok1.5061311113J. Nowak2.501111571WSep 5 · 13:05S. Szostok2.2011311113P. Jedrzejak1.611111351LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok1.837640J. Wieczerzak1.831111113WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok1.9111611113Z. Sobkow1.80511631
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.