TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075224
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171181012811113
Pawel Slosarczyk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:08 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Pawel Slosarczyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 66.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 5–1 Pawel Slosarczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1429 vs Slosarczyk 1212
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Slosarczyk 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 60% vs Slosarczyk 30%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +3 · Slosarczyk -2
Skotniczny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.25 / Slosarczyk 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Skotniczny)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13075224
Skotniczny1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 111 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Slosarczyk3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 97 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back14% 26 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSkotniczny5wins
AwaySlosarczyk1wins
Skotniczny leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny100%5 of 5
AwaySlosarczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny5Slosarczyk1n = 6Skotniczny took 5 of 6
S2Skotniczny4Slosarczyk2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S3Skotniczny4Slosarczyk2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSkotnicznySlosarczykSkotniczny − SlosarczykBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match34.827.3+7.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznySlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime579 / 1009 vs 306 / 80757.4%37.9%579 / 1009 vs 306 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.25/Slosarczyk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 04:10R. Skotniczny—11116113P. Slosarczyk—771181
WSep 3 · 16:40R. Skotniczny—131211113P. Slosarczyk—1114881
LSep 3 · 10:40R. Skotniczny—11830P. Slosarczyk—1311113
WJul 14 · 07:45R. Skotniczny—1111113P. Slosarczyk—4750
WJul 22 · 13:30R. Skotniczny—1311113P. Slosarczyk—11640
WJul 22 · 07:30R. Skotniczny—1111113P. Slosarczyk—3960
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.4045111252R. Piechnik2.751111510113
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 6 · 08:45W. Pytlas1.371111111042P. Slosarczyk2.75136612113WSep 6 · 07:35P. Slosarczyk4.101311113K. Hetnar1.1811940LSep 6 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.8581111123P. Slosarczyk1.851135101WSep 6 · 05:10K. Juszczyk1.309580P. Slosarczyk3.101111113LSep 6 · 03:35G. Sawicki2.5011614133P. Slosarczyk1.4441112111WSep 5 · 17:05M. Lach1.303660P. Slosarczyk3.201111113LSep 5 · 15:55P. Slosarczyk1.95610131192W. Buczynski1.741112117113WSep 5 · 14:45R. Piechnik1.8091111622P. Slosarczyk1.91118911113LSep 5 · 13:30J. Jesiek1.60811117113P. Slosarczyk2.1511381172WSep 5 · 11:55R. Idaczyk1.85491181P. Slosarczyk1.8211118113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
P. Slosarczyk
Nothing scheduled
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