TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075295
Played Sep 4Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511911411––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:29 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Rafal Skotniczny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 54.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–1 Rafal Skotniczny Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:29What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1465 vs Skotniczny 1438
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 60% vs Skotniczny 20%
Sobkow
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 50% vs Skotniczny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -1 · Skotniczny -4
Skotniczny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.90 / Skotniczny 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13075295
Sobkow1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Skotniczny1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 111 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwaySkotniczny1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowSkotnicznySobkow − SkotnicznyBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.035.5−2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 57 vs 577 / 100756.1%57.3%32 / 57 vs 577 / 1007Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySobkow 1.90/Skotniczny 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow—115941R. Skotniczny—91111113
WSep 4 · 07:45Z. Sobkow—1114123R. Skotniczny—712100
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133WSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.4045111252R. Piechnik2.751111510113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
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R. Skotniczny
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