TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075293
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119311118––
Roman Piechnik
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Roman Piechnik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 0–1 Roman Piechnik Rafal Skotniczny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1438 vs Piechnik 1242
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Piechnik 60%
Piechnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 60% vs Piechnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +2 · Piechnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Piechnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.44 / Piechnik 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13075293
Skotniczny1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 111 of 117
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Piechnik2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog27% won 3 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back11% 1 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkotniczny0wins
AwayPiechnik1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPiechnik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkotnicznyPiechnikS − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.048.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyPiechnikBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1008 vs 11 / 2857.3%39.3%578 / 1008 vs 11 / 28Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.533.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.44/Piechnik 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny—45111252R. Piechnik—1111510113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.4045111252R. Piechnik2.751111510113
R. Piechnik10
WSep 6 · 16:20M. Lach1.6071040R. Piechnik2.151112113LSep 6 · 15:30K. Slawinski1.70911911113R. Piechnik2.0011211392WSep 6 · 14:45R. Piechnik1.501114113M. Oracz2.5091270LSep 6 · 13:10R. Piechnik2.258611101W. Wojtaszczyk1.5711115123WSep 6 · 12:20R. Wojcik1.68121111492R. Piechnik2.02149911113LSep 6 · 11:05R. Piechnik2.507116111M. Oracz1.4511911133LSep 6 · 09:30R. Piechnik2.6011811492K. Slawinski1.41511911113LSep 6 · 08:20R. Piechnik1.95714551R. Wojcik1.75111211113LSep 6 · 06:45R. Piechnik2.5510111161M. Lach1.4612913113WSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.4045111252R. Piechnik2.751111510113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
R. Piechnik
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.