TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071158
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4115111151210511
Roman Piechnik
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Roman Piechnik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 85 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 61.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 1–1 Roman Piechnik Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:57What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1434 vs Piechnik 1256
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Piechnik 60%
Skotniczny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 50% vs Piechnik 30%
Skotniczny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -1 · Piechnik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Piechnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.40 / Piechnik 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13071158
Skotniczny1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Piechnik2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 8 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSkotniczny1wins
AwayPiechnik1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyPiechnikS − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.043.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyPiechnikBasisWin rate · lifetime578 / 1008 vs 16 / 4057.3%40%578 / 1008 vs 16 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.40/Piechnik 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Piechnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny—12113113R. Piechnik—1091181
LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny—45111252R. Piechnik—1111510113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 07:45R. Skotniczny1.91712100Z. Sobkow1.801114123
R. Piechnik10
WSep 6 · 16:20M. Lach1.6071040R. Piechnik2.151112113LSep 6 · 15:30K. Slawinski1.70911911113R. Piechnik2.0011211392WSep 6 · 14:45R. Piechnik1.501114113M. Oracz2.5091270LSep 6 · 13:10R. Piechnik2.258611101W. Wojtaszczyk1.5711115123WSep 6 · 12:20R. Wojcik1.68121111492R. Piechnik2.02149911113LSep 6 · 11:05R. Piechnik2.507116111M. Oracz1.4511911133LSep 6 · 09:30R. Piechnik2.6011811492K. Slawinski1.41511911113LSep 6 · 08:20R. Piechnik1.95714551R. Wojcik1.75111211113LSep 6 · 06:45R. Piechnik2.5510111161M. Lach1.4612913113LSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181
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