TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071010
Played Sep 4Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
71112141012––––
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRafal Skotniczny above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 0-1
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 66 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Rafal Skotniczny at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1446 vs Sobkow 1474
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Sobkow 40%
Skotniczny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 40% vs Sobkow 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -2 · Sobkow -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.91 / Sobkow 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotniczny)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13071010
Skotniczny1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 67 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Sobkow1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 17 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznySobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1004 vs 31 / 5457.4%57.4%576 / 1004 vs 31 / 54Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.91/Sobkow 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobkow won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113LSep 4 · 09:25R. Skotniczny2.20711126132J. Pruszkowski1.611151011153LSep 4 · 06:30R. Skotniczny1.4045111252R. Piechnik2.751111510113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133LSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
Z. Sobkow
Nothing scheduled
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