TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091877
Played Sep 7Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112118116––––
Grzegorz Wichowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Wichowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
112118116––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 51–43 Grzegorz Wichowski Grzegorz Wichowski has won 43 of their 94 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Wichowski beat Skotniczny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-43 in 94
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 8 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1438 vs Wichowski 1444
Wichowski
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Wichowski 80%
Wichowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Wichowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +2 · Wichowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wichowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.60 / Wichowski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skotniczny)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13091877
Skotniczny1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Wichowski2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back38% 16 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny4wins
AwayWichowski6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderWichowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny50%2 of 4
AwayWichowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny4Wichowski6n = 10Wichowski took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Wichowski4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny4Wichowski6n = 10Wichowski took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny3Wichowski6n = 9Wichowski took 6 of 9
S5Skotniczny3Wichowski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyWichowskiS − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.844.6−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyWichowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime577 / 1004 vs 568 / 92657.5%61.3%577 / 1004 vs 568 / 926Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.60/Wichowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—139981G. Wichowski—111111113
LAug 3 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—1010120G. Wichowski—1212143
WAug 3 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—6111111113G. Wichowski—11861362
WJul 17 · 12:20R. Skotniczny—1111413113G. Wichowski—76111572
LJul 17 · 08:20R. Skotniczny—1111114112G. Wichowski—139811133
WJul 13 · 16:20R. Skotniczny—661111123G. Wichowski—111158102
LJul 13 · 06:45R. Skotniczny—61111962G. Wichowski—119811113
WJun 15 · 15:30R. Skotniczny—11113163G. Wichowski—7811141
LJun 15 · 09:30R. Skotniczny—911871G. Wichowski—11611113
LJun 12 · 14:45R. Skotniczny—111081142G. Wichowski—712115113
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181WSep 4 · 11:25R. Skotniczny1.731611113P. Kurek2.0014740WSep 4 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.90115941R. Skotniczny1.8091111113
G. Wichowski10
WSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990LSep 7 · 11:05G. Wichowski1.836990S. Szostok1.831111113WSep 7 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.1512711113P. Mecik4.501011981WSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981WSep 7 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.3441111113Y. Fomin2.90118741WSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:20G. Wichowski1.8611711362O. Jadach1.83411511113WSep 4 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.3721111113W. Tobiasz2.75113741LSep 4 · 13:55G. Wichowski1.85791121S. Szostok1.8511118113WSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113
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