TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092492
Played Sep 7Finished
Patryk Mecik
Home
3.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711118511811––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.27
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:10 and never touched — 75.4% is still 75.4%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
75.4%
75.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
711118511811––
H2H Patryk Mecik 19–30 Rafal Skotniczny Patryk Mecik has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Skotniczny beat Mecik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-30 in 49
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mecik 1272 vs Skotniczny 1439
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 167 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mecik 60% vs Skotniczny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mecik 40% vs Skotniczny 70%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mecik -1 · Skotniczny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Skotniczny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMecik 3.30 / Skotniczny 1.27
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092492
Mecik3.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 100 of 268
Down 0–1, comes back18% 28 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89
Skotniczny1.27
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMecik3wins
AwaySkotniczny7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMecik60%3 of 5
AwaySkotniczny100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mecik5Skotniczny5n = 10split evenly
S2Mecik2Skotniczny8n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S3Mecik2Skotniczny8n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S4Mecik1Skotniczny2n = 3Skotniczny took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMecikSkotnicznyM − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match28.633.5−4.9per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMecikSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 816 vs 578 / 100440.2%57.6%328 / 816 vs 578 / 1004Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyMecik 3.30/Skotniczny 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.4%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 06:20P. Mecik—10670R. Skotniczny—1211113
LJul 13 · 11:55P. Mecik—10980R. Skotniczny—1211113
WJul 13 · 05:55P. Mecik—119711123R. Skotniczny—711115102
LJun 29 · 11:30P. Mecik—7670R. Skotniczny—1111113
WJun 29 · 07:10P. Mecik—1111123R. Skotniczny—63100
LJun 16 · 08:20P. Mecik—115121R. Skotniczny—51111113
LJun 15 · 17:05P. Mecik—117881R. Skotniczny—71111113
LJun 15 · 08:45P. Mecik—13780R. Skotniczny—1511113
WMay 11 · 17:05P. Mecik—1111113R. Skotniczny—8780
LMay 11 · 08:45P. Mecik—8370R. Skotniczny—1111113
P. Mecik10
LSep 7 · 12:45P. Mecik2.401111871Y. Fomin1.5013511113WSep 7 · 11:30P. Mecik1.9571111113W. Tobiasz1.75115851WSep 7 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.60137891P. Mecik2.20111111113LSep 7 · 09:30G. Wichowski1.1512711113P. Mecik4.501011981WSep 7 · 08:45P. Mecik3.4011811113S. Szostok1.28811891LSep 7 · 07:10P. Mecik2.0511871132W. Tobiasz1.68611114113LSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670LSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113LSep 4 · 07:10P. Mecik1.908119141A. Ruszkiewicz1.7511811163WSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181
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