TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092790
Played Sep 7Finished
Yurij Fomin
Home
2.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11610129111161012
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
11610129111161012
H2H Yurij Fomin 23–27 Rafal Skotniczny Yurij Fomin has won 23 of their 50 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skotniczny beat Fomin 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-27 in 50
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 4 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1330 vs Skotniczny 1446
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 40% vs Skotniczny 80%
Skotniczny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 40% vs Skotniczny 70%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +2 · Skotniczny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 2.40 / Skotniczny 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13092790
Fomin2.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 55 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 56
Skotniczny1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFomin5wins
AwaySkotniczny5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFomin80%4 of 5
AwaySkotniczny80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin5Skotniczny5n = 10split evenly
S2Fomin4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Fomin6Skotniczny4n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Fomin5Skotniczny3n = 8Fomin took 5 of 8
S5Fomin1Skotniczny2n = 3Skotniczny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFominSkotnicznyF − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.2+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 534 vs 579 / 100448.9%57.7%261 / 534 vs 579 / 1004Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyFomin 2.40/Skotniczny 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin—9880R. Skotniczny—1111113
WJun 29 · 12:45Y. Fomin—11117123R. Skotniczny—5611101
WJun 29 · 10:20Y. Fomin—117118113R. Skotniczny—61151152
LJun 15 · 11:30Y. Fomin—713751R. Skotniczny—111111113
WJun 15 · 07:10Y. Fomin—13711113R. Skotniczny—1111781
WMay 18 · 12:45Y. Fomin—1113123R. Skotniczny—311100
LMay 18 · 10:20Y. Fomin—11881492R. Skotniczny—8111112113
LMay 11 · 15:55Y. Fomin—1071111102R. Skotniczny—121164123
LMay 11 · 07:30Y. Fomin—9111141R. Skotniczny—11132113
WApr 20 · 11:55Y. Fomin—81112113R. Skotniczny—1191091
Y. Fomin10
WSep 7 · 16:20Y. Fomin2.901112113G. Wichowski1.3471040WSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102WSep 7 · 12:45P. Mecik2.401111871Y. Fomin1.5013511113LSep 7 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.25971151S. Szostok1.5411118113LSep 7 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.60137891P. Mecik2.20111111113LSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113LSep 7 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.3441111113Y. Fomin2.90118741WSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132WSep 4 · 12:40R. Skotniczny1.4412113113R. Piechnik2.631091181
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