TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092495
Played Sep 7Finished
Yurij Fomin
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131186117111210
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:12 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeYurij Fomin to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
90 points played in total.
Set by set
1131186117111210
H2H Yurij Fomin 31–24 Wojciech Tobiasz Wojciech Tobiasz has won 24 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tobiasz beat Fomin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-24 in 55
Fomin
Correct
gap of 7 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fomin 1320 vs Tobiasz 1270
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fomin 20% vs Tobiasz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fomin 30% vs Tobiasz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fomin +1 · Tobiasz -4
Tobiasz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Fomin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFomin 1.70 / Tobiasz 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Fomin)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13092495
Fomin1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 89 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it91% 58 of 64
Tobiasz2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 82 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFomin5wins
AwayTobiasz5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFomin50%2 of 4
AwayTobiasz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fomin4Tobiasz6n = 10Tobiasz took 6 of 10
S2Fomin8Tobiasz2n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S3Fomin7Tobiasz3n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S4Fomin2Tobiasz6n = 8Tobiasz took 6 of 8
S5Fomin3Tobiasz4n = 7Tobiasz took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFominTobiaszF − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.241.6+1.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFominTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime260 / 533 vs 337 / 73648.8%45.8%260 / 533 vs 337 / 736Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominFomin 1.70/Tobiasz 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin—61111692W. Tobiasz—110711113
WAug 17 · 15:30Y. Fomin—811911113W. Tobiasz—11511982
LAug 17 · 09:30Y. Fomin—87111292W. Tobiasz—1111610113
WJun 29 · 11:55Y. Fomin—712115123W. Tobiasz—1110311102
LJun 29 · 05:55Y. Fomin—111111992W. Tobiasz—713811113
LJun 22 · 15:05Y. Fomin—4111081W. Tobiasz—11812113
LJun 22 · 08:20Y. Fomin—131151262W. Tobiasz—1191114113
WJun 15 · 13:55Y. Fomin—1111113W. Tobiasz—8270
WJun 15 · 07:55Y. Fomin—1112123W. Tobiasz—710100
WJun 8 · 16:40Y. Fomin—611116123W. Tobiasz—119511102
Y. Fomin10
WSep 7 · 12:45P. Mecik2.401111871Y. Fomin1.5013511113LSep 7 · 11:55Y. Fomin2.25971151S. Szostok1.5411118113LSep 7 · 10:20Y. Fomin1.60137891P. Mecik2.20111111113LSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113LSep 7 · 06:45G. Wichowski1.3441111113Y. Fomin2.90118741WSep 7 · 05:55Y. Fomin2.351211123S. Szostok1.50108100WSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113LSep 4 · 07:35W. Urban1.83911811123Y. Fomin1.86118118102LSep 4 · 05:35M. Paszkiewicz1.831213113Y. Fomin1.83101180
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990LSep 7 · 11:30P. Mecik1.9571111113W. Tobiasz1.75115851LSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532LSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582WSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113WSep 7 · 07:10P. Mecik2.0511871132W. Tobiasz1.68611114113LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113LSep 4 · 15:05G. Wichowski1.3721111113W. Tobiasz2.75113741WSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143
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