TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093731
Played Sep 7Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210117113––
Wojciech Tobiasz
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 71.1% is still 71.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
71.1%
71.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
8111210117113––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 40–22 Wojciech Tobiasz Wojciech Tobiasz has won 22 of their 62 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skotniczny beat Tobiasz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-22 in 62
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 18 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1454 vs Tobiasz 1257
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 197 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Tobiasz 0%
Skotniczny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Tobiasz 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +2 · Tobiasz -5
Tobiasz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tobiasz form (0%) is below what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.45 / Tobiasz 2.55
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13093731
Skotniczny1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 212 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it95% 113 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 197
Tobiasz2.55
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 82 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny7wins
AwayTobiasz3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny85.7%6 of 7
AwayTobiasz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Tobiasz3n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Tobiasz4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny3Tobiasz7n = 10Tobiasz took 7 of 10
S4Skotniczny5Tobiasz3n = 8Skotniczny took 5 of 8
S5Skotniczny3Tobiasz1n = 4Skotniczny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyTobiaszS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.636.7+4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyTobiaszBasisWin rate · lifetime580 / 1004 vs 337 / 73857.8%45.7%580 / 1004 vs 337 / 738Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.45/Tobiasz 2.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny—411911113W. Tobiasz—11711532
LAug 3 · 13:30R. Skotniczny—1191181W. Tobiasz—13116113
WAug 3 · 07:30R. Skotniczny—1111113W. Tobiasz—6920
LJun 29 · 17:05R. Skotniczny—5690W. Tobiasz—1111113
WJun 29 · 08:45R. Skotniczny—1191110113W. Tobiasz—81191232
WJun 15 · 12:45R. Skotniczny—111112113W. Tobiasz—751441
WJun 15 · 10:20R. Skotniczny—111197123W. Tobiasz—981111102
WJun 12 · 17:05R. Skotniczny—11116113W. Tobiasz—241181
WJun 12 · 08:45R. Skotniczny—121111113W. Tobiasz—1091371
LMay 18 · 17:05R. Skotniczny—111071272W. Tobiasz—9121110113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113WSep 7 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.341211113P. Mecik3.0010670WSep 4 · 13:55R. Skotniczny1.251111108113P. Slosarczyk3.7578121132
W. Tobiasz10
LSep 7 · 15:55S. Szostok1.509111111113W. Tobiasz2.4011981342LSep 7 · 13:55Y. Fomin1.70111167123W. Tobiasz2.00381111102LSep 7 · 13:10G. Wichowski1.291511113W. Tobiasz3.3013990LSep 7 · 11:30P. Mecik1.9571111113W. Tobiasz1.75115851LSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532LSep 7 · 09:55S. Szostok1.50681111113W. Tobiasz2.3611119582WSep 7 · 07:55Y. Fomin1.8561111692W. Tobiasz1.85110711113WSep 7 · 07:10P. Mecik2.0511871132W. Tobiasz1.68611114113LSep 7 · 05:30G. Wichowski1.3513115113W. Tobiasz2.851171121LSep 4 · 16:40W. Tobiasz3.1051111572S. Szostok1.33116711113
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