TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13096759
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91112104111012––
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.42
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:50 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
91112104111012––
H2H Mariusz Baron 9–18 Kacper Slawinski Mariusz Baron has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Baron beat Slawinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (65%)
Slawinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-18 in 27
Slawinski
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1347 vs Slawinski 1519
Slawinski
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Slawinski 60%
Slawinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Slawinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Slawinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (60%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.60 / Slawinski 1.42
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Slawinski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13096759
Baron2.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 268
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 139
Slawinski1.42
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 90 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 64 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron3wins
AwaySlawinski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlawinski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron40%2 of 5
AwaySlawinski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron5Slawinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Baron5Slawinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Baron3Slawinski7n = 10Slawinski took 7 of 10
S4Baron3Slawinski4n = 7Slawinski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronSlawinskiB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.8−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1812 vs 614 / 99248.3%61.9%876 / 1812 vs 614 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiBaron 2.60/Slawinski 1.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Slawinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 10:20M. Baron—11118113K. Slawinski—871171
LSep 1 · 11:25M. Baron—1186101K. Slawinski—61111123
LSep 1 · 05:15M. Baron—8119101K. Slawinski—11911123
LAug 28 · 16:40M. Baron—6780K. Slawinski—1111113
LAug 28 · 10:40M. Baron—811111062K. Slawinski—119812113
LAug 18 · 13:10M. Baron—11971172K. Slawinski—811111113
WAug 18 · 05:30M. Baron—1311113K. Slawinski—11990
LAug 11 · 11:55M. Baron—89100K. Slawinski—1111123
WAug 11 · 05:55M. Baron—81111143K. Slawinski—1179121
LAug 4 · 12:45M. Baron—11104131K. Slawinski—61211153
M. Baron10
LSep 8 · 11:30M. Baron1.739111631W. Buczynski2.0011918113WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392WSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652
K. Slawinski10
WSep 8 · 13:55K. Slawinski1.29981111113W. Buczynski3.1011113882WSep 8 · 11:55K. Slawinski1.7911911133J. Pruszkowski1.848118111LSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:05K. Slawinski1.3691181192O. Vincenec2.75116119113WSep 8 · 07:55K. Slawinski1.2911116113W. Buczynski3.10761141WSep 8 · 06:45S. Szostok2.05871161K. Slawinski1.6611118113LSep 8 · 05:55K. Slawinski1.83115116102J. Pruszkowski1.86711911123LSep 6 · 17:05K. Slawinski1.8310770M. Oracz1.861211113WSep 6 · 15:30K. Slawinski1.70911911113R. Piechnik2.0011211392WSep 6 · 14:20K. Slawinski1.3011117113R. Wojcik3.10891191
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