TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13096062
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111191618311––
Witold Buczynski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeWitold Buczynski to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
9111191618311––
H2H Mariusz Baron 24–16 Witold Buczynski Witold Buczynski has won 16 of their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Baron beat Buczynski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:59What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-16 in 40
Baron
Wrong
gap of 8 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1360 vs Buczynski 1343
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Buczynski 20%
Baron
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Buczynski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +1 · Buczynski -4
Buczynski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buczynski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.73 / Buczynski 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baron)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13096062
Baron1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 221 of 388
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 158 of 227
Buczynski2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 191 of 514
Down 0–1, comes back22% 65 of 302
Down 0–2, comes back5% 9 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayBuczynski5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron71.4%5 of 7
AwayBuczynski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Buczynski3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron6Buczynski4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Baron4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S4Baron2Buczynski8n = 10Buczynski took 8 of 10
S5Baron4Buczynski3n = 7Baron took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronBuczynskiBaron − BuczynskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match47.146.0+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1811 vs 432 / 111748.4%38.7%876 / 1811 vs 432 / 1117Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronBaron 1.73/Buczynski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Buczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron—11131111113W. Buczynski—71551392
LAug 31 · 15:55M. Baron—7137111W. Buczynski—111111133
WAug 31 · 09:55M. Baron—1211914113W. Buczynski—1013111262
WAug 25 · 12:15M. Baron—118118123W. Buczynski—711611102
LAug 25 · 08:35M. Baron—911791W. Buczynski—11911113
WApr 23 · 13:55M. Baron—11115113W. Buczynski—861151
LApr 23 · 07:55M. Baron—121011662W. Buczynski—1012411113
LMar 26 · 14:30M. Baron—111198172W. Buczynski—851111193
WMar 26 · 08:30M. Baron—111167143W. Buczynski—871111122
LMar 24 · 15:20M. Baron—61111982W. Buczynski—115711113
M. Baron10
LSep 8 · 12:45M. Baron2.609124101K. Slawinski1.42111011123WSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113LSep 8 · 09:30S. Szostok1.4713127113M. Baron2.3911101191LSep 8 · 08:45M. Baron2.401186111J. Pruszkowski1.5071111133WSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392WSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652
W. Buczynski10
LSep 8 · 13:55K. Slawinski1.29981111113W. Buczynski3.1011113882LSep 8 · 13:10S. Szostok1.531051111113W. Buczynski2.3612119472WSep 8 · 10:40O. Vincenec1.828880W. Buczynski1.881111113LSep 8 · 09:55J. Pruszkowski1.5711611113W. Buczynski2.20511931LSep 8 · 07:55K. Slawinski1.2911116113W. Buczynski3.10761141LSep 8 · 07:10M. Baron1.7111131111113W. Buczynski2.0071551392LSep 8 · 05:30S. Szostok1.3713811113W. Buczynski2.701111691WSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113WSep 5 · 15:55P. Slosarczyk1.95610131192W. Buczynski1.741112117113WSep 5 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.607114101W. Buczynski2.1011911123
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