TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076918
Played Sep 4Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116118––––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 54.2%
53 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 37–34 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-34 in 71
Adamus
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1235 vs Schaniel 1331
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 0% vs Schaniel 20%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 20% vs Schaniel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -5 · Schaniel -1
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.83 / Schaniel 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schaniel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13076918
Adamus1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Schaniel1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus50%2 of 4
AwaySchaniel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Adamus6Schaniel4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus6Schaniel4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S5Adamus3Schaniel4n = 7Schaniel took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSchanielA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.046.2−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1617 vs 869 / 173548.3%50.1%781 / 1617 vs 869 / 1735Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielAdamus 1.83/Schaniel 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 23:55M. Adamus—111231172K. Schaniel—9101113113
LJul 31 · 17:55M. Adamus—1111119112K. Schaniel—137811133
LJul 16 · 17:05M. Adamus—1071281K. Schaniel—121110113
WJul 16 · 08:45M. Adamus—912714113K. Schaniel—1110111292
WJun 2 · 22:00M. Adamus—181111113K. Schaniel—11116942
WMay 20 · 05:35M. Adamus—12911113K. Schaniel—1011981
LMay 7 · 02:00M. Adamus—11126772K. Schaniel—5101111113
LMar 24 · 23:00M. Adamus—51151142K. Schaniel—118117113
WMar 24 · 19:00M. Adamus—61111123K. Schaniel—1177101
WFeb 20 · 16:55M. Adamus—136118113K. Schaniel—111181182
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
K. Schaniel10
LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113WSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652
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