TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058108
Played Sep 2Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
121012101210––––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Durda above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 66 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Michal Durda at 64.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Michal Durda 5–1 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Durda
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1609 vs Schaniel 1416
Durda
Correct
both rated, 193 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 80% vs Schaniel 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 80% vs Schaniel 60%
Durda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +2 · Schaniel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.28 / Schaniel 3.50
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Durda)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13058108
Durda1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Schaniel3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 186 of 458
Down 0–1, comes back27% 68 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDurda5wins
AwaySchaniel1wins
Durda leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda100%3 of 3
AwaySchaniel33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda3Schaniel3n = 6split evenly
S2Durda5Schaniel1n = 6Durda took 5 of 6
S3Durda4Schaniel2n = 6Durda took 4 of 6
S4Durda3Schaniel0n = 3Durda took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDurdaSchanielD − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.233.5+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 237 vs 875 / 174178.1%50.3%185 / 237 vs 875 / 1741Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.28/Schaniel 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 6 · 11:30M. Durda—111110113K. Schaniel—981281
WAug 6 · 07:10M. Durda—81111113K. Schaniel—118991
LJul 27 · 24:20M. Durda—81590K. Schaniel—1117113
WJul 26 · 20:20M. Durda—1214113K. Schaniel—101280
WJul 23 · 09:00M. Durda—91112113K. Schaniel—1151091
WJul 23 · 04:30M. Durda—1111113K. Schaniel—8690
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113LSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda1.061317113I. Szymanski8.00111570WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 16:15M. Durda1.20111111113G. Marud4.33313691WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
K. Schaniel10
WSep 7 · 07:45K. Schaniel2.631111113J. Pruszkowski1.449860LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.