TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13057818
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131113116119––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:45 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Durda above · Grzegorz Marud below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Durda at 63.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Michal Durda 4–0 Grzegorz Marud Grzegorz Marud has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:45What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Durda
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1585 vs Marud 1324
Durda
Correct
both rated, 261 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 60% vs Marud 0%
Durda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 80% vs Marud 40%
Durda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +2 · Marud -5
Marud
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.20 / Marud 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Durda)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13057818
Durda1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Marud4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDurda4wins
AwayMarud0wins
Durda leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda100%4 of 4
AwayMarudn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda4Marud0n = 4Durda took 4 of 4
S2Durda4Marud0n = 4Durda took 4 of 4
S3Durda2Marud2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDurdaMarudD − MBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.825.0+12.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 231 vs 636 / 136277.9%46.7%180 / 231 vs 636 / 1362Avg sets wonper match2.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.20/Marud 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 28 · 01:50M. Durda—111110113G. Marud—791241
WJul 27 · 18:20M. Durda—1112113G. Marud—71010
WJul 27 · 02:20M. Durda—11118113G. Marud—451191
WJul 26 · 18:20M. Durda—1111113G. Marud—8580
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113LSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda1.061317113I. Szymanski8.00111570WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
Upcoming Matches
M. Durda
Nothing scheduled
G. Marud1 of 4 neutral
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